CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2015-10-22T03:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-10-22T03:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/9539/-1
CME Note: Relatively faint partial halo CME associated with long duration C4.5 flare from AR2434.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-10-24T18:26Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-10-24T11:49Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/9543/1
Model Inputs:
2015-10-22T03:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=37.0, Lat.=-13.0, Speed=861.0, HalfAngle=43.0, Time21.5=2015-10-22T07:09Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2015-10-24T11:49Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =17.3 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.3
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151022_070900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151022_070900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151022_070900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151022_070900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151022_070900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151022_070900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151022_070900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151022_070900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151022_070900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151022_070900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151022_070900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151022_070900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151022_070900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Spitz_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20151022_070900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 47.77 hour(s)
Difference: 6.62 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) on 2015-10-22T18:40Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy